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A key system of Atlantic Ocean currents may collapse anytime between 2025 and 2095, a new study found. Potential impacts include permanent drought in Western Africa and extreme winters in Western Europe. In 2019, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted the stream would collapse sometime after 2100. The effects of such a collapse could include permanent drought in Western Africa, extreme winters in Western Europe, and disruptions to monsoon patterns in India, South America, and Western Africa, CNN reported in 2021. The authors of the study included recommendations to mitigate the collapse of the system, including immediate moves to eliminate planet-warming pollution.
Persons: Peter Ditlevsen —, , Peter de Menocal Organizations: CNN, Service, United Nations, Oceanographic Institution Locations: Western Africa, Western Europe, India, South America
The AMOC is a complex tangle of currents that works like a giant global conveyor belt. It transports warm water from the tropics toward the North Atlantic, where the water cools, becomes saltier and sinks deep into the ocean, before spreading southwards. The likeliest point of collapse is somewhere between 2039 and 2070, Ditlevsen said. Warming oceans and melting ice threaten to desatbilize a crucial system of ocean currents in the Atlantic. “The key point of this study is that we don’t have much time at all to do this,” de Menocal said.
Persons: , Peter de Menocal, Peter Ditlevsen, Ditlevsen, , Drew Angerer, Menocal, It’s, haven’t, ” de Menocal, Stefan Rahmstorf Organizations: CNN, Oceanographic Institution, University of Copenhagen, Atlantic, University of Potsdam Locations: Europe, Greenland, Cove, Newfoundland, Canada, Germany
The last time there was a major slowdown in the mighty network of ocean currents that shapes the climate around the North Atlantic, it seems to have plunged Europe into a deep cold for over a millennium. That was roughly 12,800 years ago, when not many people were around to experience it. A pair of researchers in Denmark this week put forth a bold answer: A sharp weakening of the currents, or even a shutdown, could be upon us by century’s end. It was a surprise even to the researchers that their analysis showed a potential collapse coming so soon, one of them, Susanne Ditlevsen, a professor of statistics at the University of Copenhagen, said in an interview. Climate scientists generally agree that the Atlantic circulation will decline this century, but there’s no consensus on whether it will stall out before 2100.
Persons: Susanne Ditlevsen Organizations: University of Copenhagen Locations: Europe, Denmark
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